The price of gold falls in yesterday's New York trading from 1130 to
1111 U.S. dollars / oz. This morning, the gold price stabilizes the
market in Sydney and Hong Kong and is currently trading with $ 1,116 /
oz to around 16 $ / oz at the previous day's level. The gold mining
stocks worldwide recorded strong profit-taking and technically dip
into the oversold area.
The financial world, the World Economic and World Social Crisis
Venezuela's President Chavez leaves 3 more banks "for serious
administrative and managerial problems" close. Chavez recently had
decreed that the daughter of the French retailer Casino is
expropriated, because illegal in the shops, prices have been
increased. The devaluation of the Bolivar by 50%, inflationary
pressures have intensified further. Finally, the inflation rate was
25%.
Comment: The development in Venezuela should be closely monitored,
because here are the consequences of a socialist monetary policy, the
least developed countries are followed, impressively clear. First, the
monetary base destroyed (current policy, especially the Fed and the
Bank of England), then moves to the inflation rate (not yet visible
because of the money flow is directed more in the assets, eg bonds),
then made government intervention (eg nationalization of banks such as
Northern Rock, HRE), then state interventions in the economy, such as
price controls, so that companies pass on higher prices and can not be
endangered in their existence (food prices, gas, water and electricity
tariffs). Even in Germany in the wake of the bankruptcy HRE
expropriation law was introduced. Overall, the economy collapsed as a
result of a failed socialist monetary policy, which is not named as a
cause for the problems.
Institutional investors are fighting for compensation from their
investments in Iceland. Deka Bank, DZ Bank, BayernLB, WestLB, HSH
Nordbank and Commerzbank had invested about 22 billion € in Iceland.
Comment: We should be excited to see how the Icelanders raise this
sum, which corresponds to about 70,000 € / inhabitant.
Handelsblatt: The abundant supply of government bonds should bring
investors a long low returns. The issue size of the EU countries has
increased by 36% in 2009 to 870 billion euros and is expected to grow
further in 2010 to over € 1,000 billion.
Comment: The author of the article is right on the manipulation of
interest fooled by the ECB. A growing supply of bonds would actually
lead to rising interest rates. A growing demand from investors on the
other hand to falling interest rates. In this example, the
manipulation of interest rates is to observe impressive, which has led
to misallocation of how the current bubble in the bond markets.
Inflation rate in Britain jumped to 2.9% in December. In November the
rate was still 1.9%.
The precious metals markets
In euro terms, gold prices fall because of the strong dollar return
relatively little (current price 25 451 € / kg, yesterday 25 635 € /
kg). In the long term, gold prices are in bullish trend in the
direction of our new interim target of 1,600 $ / oz ($ 1,400 / oz, see
Daily Report 04.11.09). Due to the fundamental constitution of the
gold market, we consider a reversal of long-term uptrend for virtually
excluded. In the next phase of inflation (crack-up boom, description
in the magazine "Smart Investor", April 2009, the target rate of the
gold price must be raised significantly.
Silver clearly breaks one (current price $ 18.03 / oz, $ 18.66 the
previous day / oz). Platinum recorded relatively mild profit-taking
(current price $ 1,629 / oz, $ 1,646 the day before / oz). Palladium
rallied further against (current price $ 472 / oz, $ 459 the day
before / oz). The base metals to give clear and lose about 3%.
The New York xau gold mining index breaks by 3.8% or 6.6 points to
167.3. The factory settings are Goldcorp and Iamgold respectively 5.3%
and 4.5% Barrick. For the smaller values CGA lose 10.3%, 7.3%
Gabriel, Detour 6.8%, 5.7% Claude, MDN 5.3% and 5.2% in Anatolia.
Enter at the Silver Standard Silver values 8.9%, 8.1% Coeur d'Alene,
Hecla 6.3% and 6.2% by Pan American.
The South African values develop in New York trading weaker. DRD
Gold falls back to 6.5%.
The Australian market is also weaker this morning. When the producer
are Resolute 9.7%, 8.3% Oceana, Aquarius 6.7%, 6.1% North Queensland
and Focus and Troy 5.3%. Allied to grow by 3.3%. At the Arc after
exploration values give 8.8% and 5.3% Highlands Pacific. Northern
Mining improved by 4.8%. In the exploration values Cape Lambert lose
6.5% and 5.6% Gindalbie. CBH rallied against the trend of 14.8%.
Pacific Gold + Metals Stabilitas Fund (TSX: A0ML6U)
Pacific Gold + Metals Stabilitas the funds will be presented by the
Internet service "The Investment.Com" as the best gold mining fund
2009th
The contribution can also be accessed via www.goldhotline.de under
Stabilitas Pacific.
The fund may grow by 0.8% to € 102.72 and claimed to view the last 12
months as one of the best gold mining funds registered in Germany. The
fund is now burdened by heavy profit taking. Clearly broke the
Australian Resolute (-9.7%), Oceana (-8.3%), Focus, Troy and Highlands
Pacific (both -5.3%) and the Canadian CGA (-10.3%), Goldcorp , IAMGOLD
and MDN (both -5.3%) and Anatolia (-5.2%). Overall, the funds revert
to the benchmark index in parallel today.
In evaluating the Fund 31.12.09 recorded a loss of 0.8% and may make
the comparison xau index (-4.0%) struck again. Since the beginning of
the year 2009, the fund performed in 10 to 12 months more than the
benchmark index and may the year 2009 with a gain of 131.1% while the
benchmark index has risen by 32.5%. The volume of funds raised during
the year by the gains and inflows from 2.5 to 11.0 million euros. The
current fund data and a recent market commentary is available on the
pages of www.goldhotline.de.
Profit performance since January 2009
January: +18.6% (+9.2% xau index)
February: +17.1% (-2.9% XAU Index)
March: +11.2% (+8.0% xau index)
April: +2.5% (-10.6% XAU Index)
May: +13.6% (+24.7% XAU Index)
June: -5.2% (-12.4% XAU Index)
July: +1.3% (+5.2% xau index)
August: +4.9% (-1.6% XAU Index)
September: +13.1% (+10.1% XAU Index)
October: +3.2% (-5.8% XAU Index)
November: +16.3% (+15.1% XAU Index)
December: -0.8% (-4.0% XAU Index)
Best Gold Mine Fund in 2009 with a gain of 131.1% (+32.5% XAU Index)
Despite the successful development in 2009 remains up to the highs of
2008 still an upside potential of about 35% and up to the target rates
an upside potential of about 150%. The aim of the consultant Martin
Siegel is the fund by investing in undervalued fundamentally establish
medium-sized and smaller values during the current bull market as
one of the leading gold mining funds in the years 2010 to 2012.
Note: You can Stabilitas Pacific Gold + Metals purchase no-load fund.
For more information on purchasing the funds can be found at:
www.mg-finance.de.
West Gold
Our precious metal trading company West Gold (www.westgold.de) on
Wednesday reported a more attractive volume of orders on a still
relatively low. The high polling numbers indicate our website to a
large buying interest in principle. Obviously, our customers setbacks
but wait to buy at a lower level can. Noteworthy is the low stock in
many (even international) wholesalers, despite the muted demand. Here
were dismantled in the last rise in stocks prices and not replenished,
indicating a strong demand at the highest level. Should demand pick up
again the market with rising prices is expected to completely dry. The
tendency has increased sales dramatically to about one seller to buyer
2. Our price list is available on www.westgold.de.
Analysis
21:01:10 Carrick Gold (AUS, price $ 1.08 A, MKP 131 million A $)
reports for the September quarter, the beginning of a pre-feasibility
study into its three Western Australian gold projects Lindsay's,
Brilliant and Kalpini. The preliminary production target Carrick is an
annual production of 100000-200000 oz. The resources of the projects
currently amount to 1.2 million oz (excluding inferred resources). In
addition, inferred resources in Carrick on volume of 3.0 million oz, a
total of 4.2 million oz. Carrick does not specify the anticipated date
of completion of the pre-feasibility study. On 30.06.09 a total cash
balance was A $ 10.3 million of credit exposure with respect to A $
0.2 million. 30.09.09 the total cash balance fell back to 9.4 million
A $.
Assessment: Carrick presents itself as an interesting exploration of
Australian values. Are positive, especially the low valuation of the
total resources at 33 $ / oz and the location in Western Australia.
Are negative, the status of resources, improved with a significant
exploration effort must, the long lead time to begin production and
financing outstanding. Carrick should have an annual production of
100,000 oz at a profit of A $ 200 / oz can implement, the PER would
drop back to 6.6. We gradually Carrick as a holding position.
Recommendation: Hold, buy under $ 0.90 A, $ 1.08 A current price,
target price $ 1.70 A. Carrick is quoted without sales in Berlin.
